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「素人大統領の登場とアメリカ政治の現段階
――トランプ・ポピュリズム・グローバル化」
西岡 達裕
（日本国際政治学会『国際政治』第192号「国際政治研究の先端15」、2018年3月）
J-Stageで全文公開中<https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/kokusaiseiji/2018/192/2018_192_113/_article/-char/ja>
pdfファイルへの直リンク<https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/kokusaiseiji/2018/192/2018_192_113/_pdf/-char/ja>
Summary
"The Rise of the Amateur Politician President
and the State of American Politics:
Trump, Populism, and Globalization,"
NISHIOKA Tatsuhiro
Japan Association of International Relations ed.
INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS, Vol 192 (March 2018)
In November 2016, Republican Donald Trump was elected the 45th president
of the United States in a major upset. He was a complete political
amateur.
Trump won the close election against Democrat Hillary Clinton largely
because
he carried Rust Belt swing states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan
and
Wisconsin. It seemed that his populist, anti-foreign and protectionist
rhetoric
had attracted white working class voters in the Rust Belt, who had not
felt the
benefits of globalization.
Still, the sudden rise of the amateur politician president is not easy
to fully
understand. Given that the labor market had recovered from the Great
Recession
and the U.S. Economy was on a path toward recovery, why and how did
American
voters give victory to a populist candidate like Trump? To answer that
question,
we need to understand the 2016 election in the broad context of
American history.
It is assumed that the rising tide of populism which brought this
historic victory
to Trump was not the result of a single factor, but rather a set of
factors. This
article focuses on five factors which have caused populist movements in
U.S. history:
change in the industrial structure, globalization, a deep recession,
distrust of politics,
and cultural backlash. This article discusses the 2016 election in
association with
each of these factors and offers specific examples of populist
movements in the
past in an effort to reinterpret the contemporary history of the United
States.
The background of the rise of populism in the 2016 election was public
distrust
of politics. Outsider Trump successfully convinced voters that he would
be an
anti-establishment president. If the two major political parties had
substantially
performed their function of interest aggregation, there would have been
no
chance for an outsider to win the presidential election. The Republican
Party had
inherited Reagan’s conservative coalition from the 1980s, while the
Democratic
Party had inherited Bill Clinton’s center-left coalition from the
1990s. However,
the 2016 election marked the end of an era. Trump and his supporters
were not
so much interested in Reaganism, and Bernie Sanders and the liberal
Democrats
challenged Clintonism.
Since the end of the Cold War, income inequality in the United States
has increased
markedly, and many people have come to believe that this was caused by
liberalization
and globalization. American workers have felt left behind by the
political system
and are demanding major change in that system. At the very least,
Trump’s policies
should shake up the old architecture of the two-party system.
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